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上证日线双底完成,节前消费是热点|医药--日发
日期:2018-09-26   来源:日发国际期货    作者:日发期货



01

今日市场在外围市场气氛不佳的情况下,受“入富”以及“入摩”比重在2020年提高到20%的利好影响,表现相当神勇,上证指数一举突破2800点关口,在日线级别上,一举突破短期均线的压制,完成了双底的构筑。令节前的走势相当令人振奋。不过,由于基本面的政策仍不明朗,加上技术上看,前期小高点2915点成交量较大,会形成一定的卖压,所以,投资者最好的办法是降低预期,且涨且减仓。

事实上,由于香港降低了企业IPO的门槛,因此,目前一些排队上市的公司转向香港寻求上市的融资机会,而沪伦通的前景,也令一些公司有了通过在伦敦发行CDR融资的可能,A股市场融资的强度得到一定的缓解,投资者也可以少少地松一口气了。

02

此外,今日国务院再次送出大利好,那就是从11月1日起,对进口的1585个税目的进口关税税率进行下调,国内市场需求较大的机电设备进口平均税率由12.2%下降到8.8%,纺织品、建材等关税平均水平由11.5%下降到8.4%,纸制品等部分资源性商品平均税率由6.6%降低到4.4%。关税总水平从9.8%下降到7.5%。

这个消息对于处于外贸形势较为紧张的大背景下的企业,是非常及时的,毕竟如果企业出口面临不利的关税条件的话,那么如果在原材料的进口上获得成本下降的空间也是可以对冲经营困难的。有预测显示,新关税生效后,仅今年就可以为企业和消费者减少600亿元的支出。

03

而对于消费者来说,个人所得税从10月份调高起征点,加上消费类的进口产品又面临减税措施,这对于消费板块来说,确实是个利好。从场内基金的表现来看,这一点非常突出,消费类的基金,不但涨幅可观,成交量也不错。下表已经将当天成交不足1000手的基金剔除了。

今日成交总量在1000手以上的场内基金涨幅榜排名:

从上表上可以看出,除了消费类的品种,医药类与银行类也是表现不错的板块。

而场外基金方面,据天天基金网测算,今日也是大消费类的主题基金成为大赢家。其中鹏华基金公司的、由明星基金经理王宗合管理的鹏华养老产业、消费优选以及品牌传承等重仓白酒、食品饮料的基金集体站上排行榜前列。

04

从基本面来看,医药类的板块,新出台的带量招标应当是一个不错的政策措施,一个是每年一次,这样真正好的企业不用担心没机会,二是价格低的进医保,但是有销量保证,没进医保的虽然销量要靠自己去市场打拚,但是价格有可能较高,所以等于各有千秋,而有独家产品的公司则因为没有竞争对手,价格哪怕是进医保,也不会被压价太多,这样也有利于促进医药企业的科技进步。

说起医药,不知道读者里面有没有这个行业的?作为医药的主要消费者,老年人由于健忘,面对一大堆药,经常想不起来今日是否服用过药?去国外开药,看到药品包装上会按每日的份量写上周一、周二、周三等字样,比如一天要吃三颗,每日三次,今日是周三,病人一看周三那个小格子里还有3颗,就知道自己今天一颗也没吃过,如果是二颗,就知道自己已经吃过一颗了。我注意到国内的药品包装上也是印刷了很多信息的,但是基本上的信息与药品最外层包装的信息是重复的,既然这个成本是在的,为啥不学国外的好办法,按星期数进行标识呢?这样对于提高老年人的用药安全与用药效果是很有好处的。

而且最奇葩的是,有些药厂包装真是完全不动脑筋,比如一次要吃7颗小药丸,但是却把9颗小药丸包装在一个锡纸盒子里,这样拆开就有两颗小药丸不知如何安放。

药企真要靠自己打市场,在质量、价格基本相同的价格下,谁能为患者想得更细,谁就会受到市场的欢迎。

05

而银行,个人一直是非常看好的,不说估值低,就说呆坏账这个事,事实上历次去杠杆,都是为银行防范风险,也可以说,很多政策都是站在银行一边的,当然你可以理解这是因为金融行业的外部效应大,风险具有很大的传染性。所以,通常银行如果够负责,一看到企业不行,是有能力随时抽贷的,毕竟银行处于强势的地位,企业再不满,也是敢怒不敢言。

更何况,银行所有网点的商铺都是租的吗?如果是买的,那这么多年下来,升值也是杠杠的,再加上银行财大气粗,北上广深最旺的商业地段,都是银行自建的大楼,实在经营不行了,光是商业地产都够吃好几年的。

尤其是在当下,个人投资者投资渠道越来越窄,但是机构还是大有可为的,尤其是国有银行,因此这一板块确实具有长线配置价值。加上目前分红也是相当不错的。

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金 小程序~

双语阅读~

SSE daily line double bottom, 

pre-holiday consumption is hot

In today's market, the market is in a bad atmosphere in the external market. The performance of “into the rich” and “into the capital” has increased to 20% in 2020. 

The performance is quite brave. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 2800 mark in the first-half level. On the one hand, it broke through the suppression of the short-term moving average and completed the construction of the double bottom. The trend before the festival was quite exciting. However, because the fundamentals policy is still unclear, and technically, the previous small high point of 2915 points is relatively large, which will form a certain selling pressure. Therefore, the best way for investors is to lower the expectation and increase and decrease the position. 

In fact, as Hong Kong has lowered the threshold of corporate IPOs, some companies that are currently listed in the market have turned to Hong Kong to seek listing financing opportunities, and the prospect of Huluntong has also made some companies have the possibility to issue CDR financing through London. The strength of A-share market financing has been somewhat relieved, and investors can breathe a sigh of relief.

In addition, today the State Council once again sent a big profit, that is, from November 1st, the import tariff rate of 1585 items of imported goods was lowered. The average import rate of mechanical and electrical equipment imported from the domestic market was down from 12.2% to 8.8%. The average tariff rate for textiles and building materials dropped from 11.5% to 8.4%, and the average tax rate for some resource products such as paper products decreased from 6.6% to 4.4%. The total tariff level fell from 9.8% to 7.5%.

This news is very timely for enterprises in the context of a tight foreign trade situation. After all, if the export of enterprises faces unfavorable tariff conditions, then it is difficult to hedge the operation if the cost of raw materials is reduced. Statistics show that this tariff measure can reduce the expenditure of 60 billion yuan for enterprises and consumers in just two months this year.

For consumers, the personal income tax has been raised from October, and the consumption of imported products is subject to tax cuts. This is indeed a positive for the consumer sector. Judging from the performance of the funds in the market, this is very prominent. Consumer funds have not only increased significantly, but also have good turnover. The table below has removed the funds that were sold less than 1,000 lots that day.

Today's total turnover is above 1000 lots.

As can be seen from the above table, in addition to consumer varieties, pharmaceuticals and banking are also performing well.

In terms of over-the-counter funds, according to the calculation of Tiantian Fund, today, the theme fund of the big consumer category has become a big winner. Among them, the Penghua Fund Company's Penghua pension industry, consumption optimization and brand inheritance, which are managed by star fund manager Wang Zonghe, are at the forefront of the list of heavy-duty liquor and food and beverage.

From a fundamental point of view, the pharmaceutical sector, the new introduction of the volume of tenders should be a good policy measures, one is once a year, so that really good companies do not have to worry about no opportunity, the second is the low price of medical insurance, but there are Sales guarantee, although not in the medical insurance, sales must rely on their own market to fight hard, but the price may be higher, so it is equal to each other, and companies with exclusive products because there is no competitor, the price even if it is into medical insurance, will not be under pressure Too much, this will also help promote the scientific and technological progress of pharmaceutical companies.

Speaking of medicine, I don't know if there is any industry in the readers? As a major consumer of medicine, the elderly are faced with a lot of medicines because of forgetfulness, and often can't remember whether they have taken medicine today. 

Go abroad to prescribe medicine. I will see the words on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays on the packaging of the medicine. For example, three meals a day, three times a day, today is Wednesday, and the patient looks at the small grid on Wednesday. There are still three, I know that I have not eaten one today. If it is two, I know that I have already eaten two. I noticed that a lot of information was printed on the domestic pharmaceutical packaging, but the basic information and the information on the outermost packaging of the drug were duplicated. Since this cost is in place, it is a good way to not learn abroad. What is the number? This is very beneficial for improving the safety and medication effect of the elderly.

And the most amazing thing is that some pharmaceutical factory packaging is completely uninspired, such as eating 7 small pills at a time, but packing 9 small pills in a tin box, so there are two small pills in disassembly. Placed.

Pharmaceutical companies really have to rely on their own market. Under the price of basically the same quality and price, who can think more carefully for patients, who will be welcomed by the market.

Banks, individuals have always been very optimistic, not to say that the valuation is low, it is said that the bad debts, in fact, the previous de-leverage, are for banks to prevent risks, it can be said that many policies are on the bank side, Of course, you can understand that this is because the external effects of the financial industry are large and the risks are highly contagious. Therefore, if the bank is responsible enough, if it sees that the enterprise can't, it is capable of lending at any time. After all, the bank is in a strong position, and the enterprise is dissatisfied.

What's more, are the shops at all outlets of the bank rented? If it is bought, then after so many years, the appreciation is also a lever, coupled with the bank's wealth, the most prosperous commercial areas in the north and the depths of the city, are banks built by themselves, the real business is not good, just commercial real estate is enough to eat For several years.

Especially in the present, the investment channels of individual investors are getting narrower and narrower, but institutions are still promising, especially state-owned banks, so this sector does have long-term configuration value. Plus the current dividend is quite good.


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